2022 Academy Awards Predictions

First off I should say that I’m not generally someone who wins the Oscar ballot. I let my heart lead me to some unlikely places, and then get disappointed by the inevitable political victories. And there are plenty of other professional prognosticators paid to pontificate on potential prize-winners if you’d care to peruse their predictions.

What follows is just a few of my late-arriving and rambling thoughts hastily typed less than 24 hours before showtime. (Go back to early February for my reaction to the nominees here.)

It has been a fascinating awards season because the awards sands have been shifting like the Shai-Hulud’s coming — a little Dune reference there for all the fans of that picture, sure to pick up a few of the well-deserved technical awards on Sunday night.

The early front-runner for Best Picture, Belfast, faded fast as Jane Campion’s The Power Of The Dog took a bunch of big gongs. A lot of people figured it had the major categories sewn up, despite the feeling that while a lot of folks respect the hell out of the film, few people loved it — myself included. But people *love* CODA, the less artistically impressive choice but the bigger crowdpleaser, and in the past week it’s become something of a favourite.

Frankly, I’d be fine if Ciarán Hinds won for Belfast, if Campion picked up the Best Director award, and CODA won Best Picture. There’s room for everybody at this party.

There are a few locks: Will Smith is pretty much guaranteed to win for King Richard, even though it’s a fine but not stellar movie and not even Smith’s best work. (I’m on board with this take, thanks to Rad Simonpillai for sharing on Twitter.)

I’d be entirely happy to see Ariana DeBose from West Side Story win Best Supporting Actress, as she’s expected to, and I’m not going to grouse if front-runner Troy Kotsur wins for Best Supporting Actor, despite feeling like Hinds deserves it as a career recognition.

My favourites amongst the Best Picture nominees aren’t going to win: Licorice Pizza and West Side Story, but I really hope Pizza auteur Paul Thomas Anderson goes home with something. Original Screenplay is still the most likely.

The most hotly contested category this year is Best Actress. Some have said Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye is now the most likely to succeed with SAG and Critic’s Choice awards now on her mantle, but others have said it’s Penélope Cruz’s time, and still others say Kristen Stewart and Olivia Colman are in with a shot. Her film wasn’t terrific, but I’d be entirely pleased to see Chastain recognized for years of good work — and the other actors mentioned above, too. It’s really a win-win situation.

As far as the ceremony itself, the producers’ blatant desperation to attract new audiences to the show by sacrificing the very things the faithful show up for every year — by televising fewer of the actual awards and adding other entertainment fluff and a so-called fan award — cheapens the whole affair.

I just saw a clip online of Samuel L Jackson receiving an honorary Oscar from Denzel Washington from earlier this evening. Are you telling me that moment wasn’t worth having on the main broadcast? What idiot made that decision? Sheesh.

I hope everyone enjoys the glitz and glamour, and may many a deserving artist take home the gold.

About the author


Carsten Knox is a massive, cheese-eating nerd. In the day he works as a journalist in Halifax, Nova Scotia. At night he stares out at the rain-slick streets, watches movies, and writes about what he's seeing.